My post as in Forex Factory.
RSI, stochs, MACD and all these indicators might work well for many, but I feel uncomfortable with them. I like something simple. I'm using something that has been working well, without any indicators, just strict money management.
All I need is to make 50 pips every week. With this system, if you look back at the charts, it's been achieved almost every week. There was about 4 or 5 times when it wasn't achieved in one week, but took 2 weeks, but still in the end the 50 pips was achieved. This is where strong MM discipline comes in to save the day.
*Time stated here will be in GMT+8.
I'll open the GBP/USD chart at 4.35 pm. I trade the breakout of the channel from 8 am - 4.35 pm. Usually I set up the trade at 3 pips away from the high/low. Stoploss 25 pips, target 50 pips.
If no trades are opened at 8.30 pm, I cancel all trades. Wait for proper set up the next day.
If I get stopped out, I do not re-enter the same day. I wait for a chance the next day, between 4.35 pm to 7.50 pm. I increase the lot size just enough to recover my loss the previous day. Some would freak out at this point because it's sort of a martingale strategy. Firstly, I'm not doubling up my lots, but 1.5 times. Because my stop loss is 25 pips, it's half of my target. If I lose, I need to make 1.5 times the next time to recover my loss and achieve my target. But this is not entirely the case all the time. I do have a table drawn out on how many lots I would buy on the first, second, third try etc, and how many pips I would set as target. I will gradually increase the target size so that I could keep the lot size low.
It needs to be a balance of manageable lot size, and achievable pip target. I would like to achieve my target in as little tries as possible, so keeping the pip target more achievable is very important to me.
Because of this semi-martingale strategy, I start off with trading 1% of my account. This leaves plenty of room for me to trade safely.
After I achieve my 50 pips for the week, I stop. No matter what.
This strategy might not promise as much pips as some other strategies, but for me this is simple enough to keep me happy. Indicators and such give me a headache, maybe because I can't understand it or it just seems like noise to me. Even very good indicators needs to be used with good money management, otherwise someone could just as easily blow their account.
So, what's the potential of this strategy? Let's say we start with a small account size. $3500.
In 52 weeks, or shall I say 52 successful attempts (some attempts take 2 weeks, but that happens only a few times a year), you will be making $188 dollars per week, that is $752 dollars per month.
Of course if you could start of with a larger account, all the better.
So here's how it looks like: Starting capital; How much you would be making in 52 weeks
$3500 ; $752 monthly
$10,000 ; $2152 monthly
$15,000 ; $3228 monthly
$20,000 ; $4304 monthly
$30,000 ; $6460 monthly
I don't know about you, but this is more than enough for me to live comfortably. I very much prefer having a stress-free strategy, than to live on fear and greed for the promise of a much larger return, which is not guaranteed. The numbers stated above, I can safely say if I keep my head level, stick to my system and MM, is guaranteed. Holy grail? No, wouldn't call it that yet. But am pretty damn close. See what goes!
Monday, August 4, 2008
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